Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings

Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings featured image

*Updated 5/6*

Once again, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets did the best job of picking the top horses in the Kentucky Derby.  

Doe-Anderson analyzed tweets and developed a ranking system for all horses in the Derby. Leading up to the big race, the eventual winner, long shot Country House, was ranked first or second in our system. Shortly before post-time, Country House’s final ranking position was fifth – far ahead of the betting public or the news media. 

The chart below shows where each horse was ranked based on the betting public at Churchill Downs, the amount of news coverage and social media posts on Twitter. 

 

Horse

Order of Finish Social Media Rank News Media Rank Track Rank Final Odds
Country House 1 5 14 18 65-1
Code of Honor 2 10 13 6 14-1
Cumulative rank of top 2 finishers   15 27 24  
Tacitus 3 2 5 3 5-1
Cumulative rank of top 3 finishers   17 32 27  
Improbable 4 7 3 1 4-1
Cumulative rank of top 4 finishers   24 35 28  
Game Winner 5 3 1 4 6-1
Cumulative rank of top 5 finishers   27 36 32  
Master Fencer 6 12 17 17 58-1
Cumulative rank of top 6 finishers   39 53 49  
War of Will 7 9 8 7 16-1
Cumulative rank of top 7 finishers   48 61 56  
Plus Que Parfait 8 13 18 16 57-1
Cumulative rank of top 8 finishers   61 79 72  
Win Win Win 9 1 12 7 16-1
Cumulative rank of top 9 finishers   62 91 79  
Cutting Humor 10 19 6 11 24
Cumulative rank of top 10 finishers   81 97 90  


Last year, Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings based on tweets was also the best at predicting the top finishers. See chart below. Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings

 

Horse 2018 Finish Twitter Rank Betting Public
Justify 1 1 1
Good Magic 2 4 6
Audible 3 2 4
Cumulative rank   7 11

 

So, how is Doe-Anderson’s Run for the Rankings calculated? On the social media side, it takes the total number of tweets that mention each horse over the past seven days. Using a social media monitoring service, Crimson Hexagon, the tweets are rated as either neutral, positive or negative. Positive tweets help boost a horse’s ranking. 

A similar method is used to create the ranking system based on news stories. Using data provided by Meltwater, a media-intelligence service, a simple count of news stories about each horse is tabulated. Meltwater’s algorithm ranks the stories as either neutral, positive or negative. Again, positive stories help boost the overall ranking of a horse. 

While we don’t advocate this as a betting tool, it seems to show that those who tweet know what they are talking about.